巴菲特：現在是貪婪的時候
【經濟日報╱編譯季晶晶／綜合十六日電】 2008.10.18 03:30 am
美國股市近來頻頻暴跌，嚇得投資人紛紛撤資，「股神」巴菲特卻趁機大買美股，還投書紐約時報解釋在眾人恐懼之際應該貪婪的理由，鼓吹大膽以低價投資美國的未來。
（美聯社）
金融危機引爆股災，投資人避之唯恐不及，「股神」巴菲特卻逆勢操作，用個人帳戶以低價買進美股，並投書報章昭告世人，在恐懼導致全球股市暴跌之際，正是該貪婪的時候。以下是巴菲特16日投書紐約時報的全文：
美國和海外的金融市場一團糟，金融問題已殃及經濟。短期內，失業率將上揚，商業景氣轉弱，報紙頭條仍會怵目驚心。所以，我已不斷買進美股，是用自己的帳戶。以前除美國公債外，我沒有別的投資。（這不包括我在波克夏公司的持股，那已預定捐出來做公益。）如果價錢仍具吸引力，我波克夏以外的資產很快會全部轉成美股。
為什麼？有個簡單的買進規則：別人貪婪時應恐懼，別人恐懼時應貪婪。現在瀰漫的是恐懼感，即使投資老手也逃不過。投資人提防借貸比率過高或競爭力弱的企業是對的，但對許多體質健全公司的長期展望憂心忡忡卻沒道理。這些企業的獲利偶爾會打嗝，但多數大公司會在五年、十年或二十年後締造新的獲利紀錄。
有一點要說清楚：我無法預測股市的短期走勢，不知一個月或一年後股價會漲或跌。然而，行情可能在市場信心轉強或經濟改觀前就走高，也許漲幅可觀。你若要等知更鳥啼鳴，春天可能已結束。
來談一點歷史：大蕭條期間，道瓊指數在1932年7月8日跌到41點的谷底。但經濟持續惡化到羅斯福1933年3月就任總統時。不過在此之前，股市已勁揚30%。又如第二次世界大戰初期，美國在歐洲及太平洋戰事皆不利，但股市在1942年4月觸底，比盟軍時來運轉早得多。再者，1980年代初，買股好時機是通膨肆虐而經濟重挫之時。簡言之，壞消息是投資人最好的朋友，讓你可用低價投資一小塊美國的未來。
長期來說，股市新聞會變好。在20世紀，美國歷經過兩次世界大戰和其他代價慘重的軍事衝突，以及大蕭條、十幾次衰退和金融恐慌，還有幾次石油危機、一波大流感，及總統丟人現眼後辭職下台。但道瓊指數照樣從66點漲至11,497點。
你可能以為，20世紀漲幅這麼大，幾乎不可能賠錢，但就是有些人虧錢。這些倒楣人只在覺得放心時買股票，一瞥見令人不安的新聞就賣出。今天，手中持有現金及約當現金的人覺得心安，其實不該如此。他們選擇了可怕的長期資產，幾乎不生財且注定會貶值。沒錯，政府為緩解危機而採行的政策勢必引發通膨，進而加速現金帳戶的實際價值下滑。
股票未來十年的表現勢必勝過現金。現在緊抱現金的投資人，是賭他們稍後可算準時機再進場買進。在等待好消息時，他們忽視冰上曲棍球巨星葛瑞斯基（Wayne Gretzky）的建言：「溜冰時要滑向曲棍球餅預料會到的地方，而不是現在的位置。」
我不喜歡對股市發表意見，容我再次強調，我不知市場短期走向。然而，我會仿效一家餐廳的作法，這家餐廳在空盪盪的銀行大樓開業，廣告標語說：「錢放哪裡，就在哪裡吃。」今天，我的錢和我的嘴都嚷著要「股票」。
【2008/10/18 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Published: October 16, 2008
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THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.
More Articles in Opinion » A version of this article appeared in print on October 17, 2008, on page A33 of the New York edition.
2008年10月25日 星期六
2008年10月19日 星期日
Berkshire股東年度大會議事錄(二○○七年度中文翻譯)
Woodstock for Capitalists 2008 Blog
M*_Justin 05-07-2008, 5:18 PM | Post #2512990 | 8 Replies
星期六，五月三日，2008
3:05 PM. 具有洞見的一天
我希望你們和我一樣享受今天的對話，並且要鼓勵你們有任何額外的問題或是洞見的話要跟我連繫。
3:00 PM 對波克夏的希望
一位股東要求巴菲特先生說他對波克夏的期望是現存企業文化持續強勢，而且可以繼續保持基業長青家族企業的薈萃之地，他還希望波克夏可以繼續有現在聚集所有優良企業的榮景。我會注意，企業的文化是任何公司最有價值的部分之一，但也是最難量化的部分。以波克夏的例子來說，巴菲特先生把磨利公司文化看成是他的首要目標，而從我的觀點來看，這樣的文化會給他的接班人未來繼續長久穩固基業形成優勢。
2:55 PM 製藥類股
巴菲特先生說他認為製藥類股整體會表現不錯，但由於對這些公司製藥流程內容的估價相當困難，他認為投資人直接買一籃子製藥類股最能夠受益，我會註記波克夏的投資組合中有嬌生、賽諾菲艾凡提斯，還有葛蘭素史克的持股。
2:50 PM 妒忌與貪婪
巴菲特先生說妒忌是最糟糕的罪惡，因為你一旦妒忌就會感覺很差，但是同時那個被妒忌的人還是過得一樣好 – 或甚至更好。他口是心非地說，貪婪會有相反的效果。
2:35 PM 波克夏的股利？
一位股東詢問巴菲特有關波克夏發放股利的可能性，他回答說只要他能持續用公司保留盈餘的每一塊錢創造超過一塊錢的價值，波克夏都不會發放股利。以現在巴菲特先生最近砸下大量資本在長毛象集團、瑪氏/雷格利集團、其他股票投資，以及離現在更近的固定收益投資的情況來看，我認為波克夏仍然保留所有盈餘以創造價值的可能性很高。
2:30 PM 信用違約交換市場
一位股東向巴菲特先生問道信用違約交換市場泡沫化的可能性，而巴菲特先生說他認為這些金融工具崩盤的可能性不高。他認為這種悲劇的可能性已經因為聯準會介入貝爾斯登的動作而戲劇化驟減，我認為這隱含他認為這個出手相救為金融市場立下了一個良好先例。他又表示在交換市場一頭的獲利會被另一頭的虧損吃掉，形成一種比較像是金錢的流動，而不是系統性風險。為了具體表示他的論點，巴菲特先生也提到了另一家我曾經觀察過的保險公司，Fairfax Financial，一家曾經因為信用違約風險再訂價而嚐過甜頭的公司。我會多方註記這件事，Fairfax有向波克夏概略展示其獲利結構。
2:25 PM 孟格闡述金融創新
孟格說如果當年上面當家的頒布禁令不准有這個名詞存在，這禁令本身會是一個能分散風險的金融創新，現在金融市場也會好很多。
2:20 PM 孟格提到葛林斯潘
亞倫葛林斯潘受到Ayn Rand(他的思想導師)的思想影響有點過火了
2:15 PM 公平價值會計
巴菲特先生說他認為公平價值會計的使用可以避免讓管理團隊從事風險過高的借貸行為，他繼續提到，一些神秘難測的股票難以了解到他不知道從哪裡開始去估計股票價值。
2:10 PM 信用風險
巴菲特先生說在他的職業生涯中，他不記得任何一段時期有過住宅不動產風暴可以把震波穿透整個金融市場的。他繼續說道他並沒有認為這麼多這些孱弱的借貸行為會在近期的未來中再次發生。孟格說就連Web-van，那在他口語中意思有頑固的意味，都比過去幾年在房貸市場發生的事情要來得靈巧多了。
1:57 PM 孟格的閱讀書目
孟格先生建議除了他自己的新書Yes!之外，去看Ciadini的Influence這本書。
1:55 PM 你最重要的投資
巴菲特說你可以做到的最好投資就是在自己身上，因為一個人的潛力常常會超過現在已經實現的成就，他繼續談到有問過高中生如果一生只能買一部車，他們會怎麼對待這件事？然後他把這件事拿來跟照顧自己的身心靈做相似比較，巴菲特先生說有些人活得很有效率的原因，是因為其他人想要圍繞在他們身邊或是為他們做事。
1:40 PM 煤礦的展望
巴菲特先生說短時間內全球對煤礦的需求會增長，但是長期來看，尋找替代能源的重要性會變得刻不容緩，還提到波克夏旗下的Mid-American Utility所從事的業務中，他們有各種替代能源，其中有一直在投資的風力發電。孟格先生說從資源配置的觀點來看，他寧願全球先將煤礦耗竭之後，再談到使用碳水化合物。
1:25 PM 模型的使用
巴菲特先生指出在投資的專業領域中，你要的是可以信賴的人，而且有不錯的分析技巧，但是更重要的是一個對從未發生過，電腦也模擬不出來的風險具有想像力的人。他說他用這個方法找出新的投資長人選，這在他2006年的年報中有提到過。他也提到這個想法在過去幾個月信用市場的災情之後更顯得有點未卜先知，這場災難之中大多數大型金融機構的量化模型都未能正確抓出最後那一把火發生的可能性。我認為這樣講很有洞見，因為一直要記住一件事，就是模型只是分析過程中的工具，並不是最後的結果。
1:15 PM 瑪氏/雷格利交易
巴菲特強調上個禮拜有人接觸他，要他為瑪氏企業收購雷格利出手灑些銀彈。他特別談到瑪氏企業只希望和他談這樁交易，因為他們知道現金一定會完全備好，而且他們對波克夏不用在公司內部透過層層管理團隊的官僚過程就可以讓交易完成感到感激。我曾經想過波克夏因為擁有這些元素，而可以在眾多私募基金公司強敵環伺之下仍然在收購案源的供應上有其優勢，我更認為這些競爭優勢會讓波克夏的接班人正式接任時，在大樹下好乘涼。
1:00 PM 我們回來了
會議再度進行，而巴菲特先生問被到有關金融機構複雜性的問題，以及他們是否變得難以管理。用一句話來形容，巴菲特說是的，雖然如此，大多數機構大多時候都可以正常運作。至於波克夏，巴菲特說他覺得自己是公司的風險長。這樣講讓我認為他大概有考慮到大多數人沒想到的風險層面，而讓我感到安心。
12:00 PM 午餐
議程到了午餐休息時間，我們四十五分鐘之後再回來。
11:55 AM 孟格談到乙醇
孟格說把美國的玉米變成汽車燃料的政策是一個不可思議的笨主意。
11:50 AM 巴菲特談到石油
巴菲特先生說他覺得石油產量剩餘比他記憶中任何一個時候都還要小，他繼續提到當石油達到生產頂峰時，供給便會逐步減少，雖然他並不知道我們甚麼時候會到那個頂點。他說短期內並沒有讓全球戒掉石油癮的方法，但是終究人類行為會調整，或是替代能源會發展起來。巴菲特說他很難想像以現在的光景而言，需求會下滑。孟格把太陽能當做是替代能源的來源，而且還說除了太陽之外並沒有其他真正的替代能源。
11:40 AM 孟格提到分散投資標的
整個投資的秘密就是如何去找到一個安全而聰明的不用分散投資的方式
11:30 AM 接班養成計畫
一位股東要巴菲特向大家報告一下他最新的接班養成計畫，他再次重申之前提到過的想法，並說他有三位可能接任執行長的人選，而現在有四位接任投資大任的潛在人選，而最後那一位會雀屏中選則是波克夏董事會的抉擇。他也說到新接任的執行長會對投資主管的人事案有些意見表示的空間。我長期以來懷疑執行長的角色接下來會由Ajit Jain或David Sokol來擔綱，但是巴菲特對於人選的名字都是隻字未提。
11:15 AM 巴菲特談到美元
一位股東問巴菲特他對美元的看法，他說他認為美國會持續航行在美元相對弱勢的政策航道上，他更說到他並未對波克夏的美元部位做避險，但是非常樂意擁有賺外國錢能力的公司或其公開發行證券。這和他去年的態度並無二致：與其擁抱不同的貨幣部位，不如直接擁有可賺外國錢的公司。然而這只是他考量可能投資案的關鍵因素之一。
11:05 AM 孟格提到做投資
我們都買那種快被自己現金淹沒的公司。
11:00 AM 市政債券保險
巴菲特先生指出在08年第一季，波克夏新的市政債券保險公司，名為波克夏海瑟威保險，做了超過四億美元的大業績，大部分在次級市場承做¬¬ – 意思是波克夏對那些已經被其他保險公司承保的市政債券再賣一次保險。結果是波克夏二次隔離這些合約，如此不僅市政會違約，這是歷史上很小發生可能性的，連很早就存在的債券承保公司都無法付出那樣的理賠。以這些相對安全的債券所受到的雙重保護，這些交易對我來說看起來像是波克夏手到擒來的錢。
10:50 AM 孟格先生談到發掘市場錯亂
如果你無法快速思考並果決執行，那對你沒有好處。
10:45 AM 配對交易
一位股東問巴菲特先生他是否曾經在六零年代他的合夥時期做過配對交易(一支股票做多，另一支相似股票做空)。巴菲特表示他在六零年代做過很接近的事情，但是他靠做多而賺到的獲利比配對交易來得多。孟格先生附加說：我們的錢是從大量做多一些很棒的公司而賺來的。
10:40 AM 巴菲特談溝通
用口語和寫字來溝通的能力同時具備巨大的重要性，也常常被教育忽略掉
10:30 AM 職涯諮詢
一位股東問巴菲特先生他會不會重頭再幹一次，如果會的話他會做甚麼，以及為什麼。巴菲特說是的當然，而且他愛他現在做的事和他妻子。對所有在場其他人，他說：一生過得像行屍走肉是很可怕的錯誤。然後他說去做你有熱情，而且可以讓你很興奮地早上從床上爬起來的那種事情，是很重要的，這就是當年他和恩師班葛拉漢在紐約共事的時候的感觸。
10:15 AM 普通股及波克夏的報酬
一位股東問巴菲特先生有關他對波克夏未來股票及整體報酬的展望，巴菲特先生說他認為波克夏歷年來股票可以賺10%是幸運的事，他也提到說他認為波克夏未來的報酬會比以往要低。這樣的期望結果來自於波克夏的龐大規模，以及他們需要大象級的企業讓企業評價的指針移動。他又提到他認為和其他公司比較，波克夏的結構表現相對是好的，但是未來波克夏賺錢的速度會幾乎確定比過去要慢。他也說過，用比較少的資金，有些投資人可以比波克夏達到更好的績效，因為較小的資產規模可以開創比現在波克夏可擁有的還要更多的機會。他繼續聊到要去補那些被錯估的股票的洞，必須花很多時間及功夫。所有這些觀點都和他所有之前的會議所持有的態度一致，也和他尋找未來的投資主管所持觀點一致。
10:00 AM 來自孟格的憐憫建議
這是他一句摘錄評論：如果你離左邊和離右邊都很遠，你會送出很多慈善禮物的。
9:55 AM 選擇權的使用
一位股東問巴菲特先生有關他股票部位中，個人選擇權的運用情形，他說他並沒有在他股票部位使用選擇權，而且如果一個投資者喜歡一家公司然後想買它的股票，他應該就買那支個股而不要花心思在選擇權上面。巴菲特然後提到說使用選擇權最主要的困難之處在於時間這個非常難測的因素在裡面。他繼續說在商學院裡面，學生只需要修兩門可以幫助他們成為更好的投資人的課程，一門是如何評價公司，另一門則是如何思考市場波動。關鍵的洞見在於投資是落實在對公司運作的基本了解，以及讓一個人有不從眾的穩定情緒心理特質。
9:45 AM 投資建議
一位投資人問道如何讓自己的心智不會從眾，巴菲特說要閱讀再閱讀班葛拉漢的The Intelligent Investor一書，他特別強調第八和第二十章是最切中核心的，但是書裡面揭示的課程和今天市場的關連，和當年他十九歲就第一次閱讀葛拉漢的書的時候一樣高度。他也提到基本上在該本書可以學到三件事情：(1)將擁有股票想成擁有一家公司的部分一樣，(2)讓市場為你做事而不是牽著你的鼻子走，和(3)投資時永遠保留一塊安全空間。在今天的環境裡，這些原則是關鍵的，而且我特別覺得第二點是很重要去記住的，就如同在我的觀點裡，這樣可以幫助投資人避開市場裡的雜音，幫助他們隨時間過去而改善投資性格。
9:35 AM 名人出現
當去年的股東會有Jimmy Buffett的歌曲串場，今年的名人面孔有Susan Lucci，她也在今年波克夏扮演部分的角色。巴菲特先生和孟格先生才剛粉墨登場，問答時間將會馬上開始，巴菲特先生說今年這個資本家的搖滾盛會有超過三萬一千人參加。
9:20 AM 今年的版本
今年的波克夏海瑟威大秀有幾段從去年股東會和過去活動節錄的影片 – 包括幾年前巴菲特先生就有關所羅門兄弟在國會做的證詞，還有一些波克夏旗下公司產品幽默的廣告。一個我特別覺得有娛樂效果的元素是兩個操英國口音的紳士幽默地討論去年債券避險基金和信用崩盤的小喜劇，裡面還有華爾街對無知的投資人用包裝糖衣的手法兜售這些毒藥。事實上，巴菲特先生曾經在2006年年度致股東信中對這個風險有點出來過，他說：當某個有經驗的人向有錢的人促成交易時，太常出現的是那位有錢的老兄到最後買到了經驗，而那位有經驗的人最後得到了錢。
8:30 AM 波克夏秀場時間
盛會就要開始，然後就是巴菲特先生和孟格先生冗長的問答時間，不要離開，更多大戲很快登場！
8:00 AM 大會開始
每年波克夏股東會都是由巴菲特和搭擋孟格先生的小漫畫喜劇做開端，我總是覺得那短片中最印象深刻的元素在最後一段，有對眾多波克夏經理人的細部描寫，而且配上了電影真善美的”My Favorite Things”的音樂。即使巴菲特是波克夏的門面，也是做出主要資本配置決策的人，他團隊中一些很棒的經理人才是真正讓那些公司向前運作，也才是讓波克夏可以有如此令人印象深刻長期表現的中堅份子。我總是覺得商業和投資的成功，組織裡面的人的因素扮演和其他因素相同吃重的角色，而這個片段總是向我強調真正傑出的經理人對公司的影響有多大。
7:20 AM 第一季營收
昨晚波克夏公佈和我預期出入不大的第一季營收，總體結果受到波克夏十六億美元衍生性商品市價跌損影響，主要包括一些信用違約交換以及一籃子股票指數市價的賣權。這個比對市價應該被大大地忽略，就我的意見，如果波克夏想要續抱這些合約至到期日的話，即使會計準則要求改變價值以產生損益表。
如同我所預期的，波克夏最大的事業體，保險業，因為事業線上受到利率下滑影響表現略差。最明顯的下滑是在波克夏海瑟威再保，由於巨災保單的業績不理想，而波克夏已經逐步抽離其中一些市場；汽車保險業GEICO即使在這樣的緩步利率環境中，還是有明顯的成長。
在投資面，波克夏完成了長毛象集團四十五億的案子，也購買了超過一百零五億美元的固定收益證券，這很明顯地說明了巴菲特本人，當被普遍認為是選股的高手的同時，也同樣身為就算沒有更好也一樣不錯的固定收益投資者。過去一季由於信用市場的震動，波克夏可能有辦法買一些殖利率不錯的債券。加總來看，波克夏的現金結餘在三月三十一日降低到三百一十億美元，這個現金水位還不包括在四月波克夏答應要幫瑪氏收購雷格利的六十五億美元。而且由於波克夏必須因為保險法規而握有大約一百億美元的現金，它的可支配現金結餘降到了一百五十億美元，這是比去年低很多的水準，而且也是顯示巴菲特先生在去年市場震動的時刻選到了很多具吸引力的投資標的。
7:00 AM 歡迎來到奧馬哈
從奧馬哈的奎斯中心歡迎您！波克夏的股東們正魚貫進場，今年的大會看起來比往年要來得大，大多數股東可能在過去一年信用緊縮和市場波動的背景下，對巴菲特先生和孟格先生評論經濟和股市這件事很有興趣聽。我也很期待聽到他們的想法，但是我也有興趣多聽一點有關接班人的計畫、波克夏未來可能的收購案，和其本身營運前景。
Justin Fuller is a Morningstar equity strategist, Berkshire analyst, and manager of Morningstar's Ultimate Stock-Picker's Portfolio.
Woodstock for Capitalists 2008 Blog
M*_Justin 05-07-2008, 5:18 PM | Post #2512990 | 8 Replies
Saturday, May 3rd, 2008
3:05 p.m. An Insightful Day
I hope that you enjoyed today's discussion as much as I did, and I encourage you to contact me with any additional questions or insights you may have.
3:00 p.m. Hopes for Berkshire
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett what he hopes for Berkshire is that the culture stays strong and that it remains a home for businesses that were built by families over time. He also hopes that the company will continue on as it is now by being a home for great businesses. I'll note that culture is one of the most valuable parts of any business, but the most difficult to quantify. In Berkshire's case, Mr. Buffett views sharpening the Berkshire culture as his chief objective, and in my view this culture will give his successor(s) an advantage in continuing to build the company for decades to come.
2:55 p.m. Pharma Stocks
Mr. Buffett said that he thinks pharma stocks as a group will do well, but given that it is very difficult to value what is in the pipelines of these companies, he thinks investors would be best served by buying a basket of pharma stocks. I'll note that Berkshire's equity portfolio has positions in J&J, Sanofi-Aventis, as well as GlaxoSmithKline.
2:50 p.m. Envy vs. Gluttony
Mr. Buffett said that envy is the worst of the sins because if you become envious you feel worse, while the other person is the same--or even feels better. He said, tongue-in-cheek, that gluttony on the other hand has upside.
2:35 p.m. Dividends for Berkshire?
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett about the potential for dividends at Berkshire, and he said that as long as he can continue to create more than $1 of value with every $1 of retained earnings, Berkshire will not pay dividends. Given that Mr. Buffet has been putting a lot of capital to work lately with the Marmon Group, Mars/Wrigley, additional equity investments, and, more recently, new fixed-income investments, I think there are heaps of potential for Berkshire to still create wealth by retaining all of its earnings.
2:30 p.m. Credit Default Swap Market
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett about the potential for a blowup in the credit default swap market, and Mr. Buffett said he thinks that a meltdown of these instruments is unlikely. He thinks that the chances of this have been dramatically reduced by the Fed stepping in on the Bear Stearns situation, which I think implies that he thinks this sets a precedent for the financial markets. He further said that the gains on one end of the swap market would be offset by losses on the other end, and that it is more of a transfer of money than a systemic risk to markets. In illustrating his point, Mr. Buffett also referred to another insurance firm I used to follow, Fairfax Financial, which benefited from the re-pricing of credit default swap risks. I'll note that in many ways, Fairfax has roughly modeled its business structure on Berkshire.
2:25 p.m. Munger on Financial Innovation
Munger said that if regulators had banned the phrase, "this is a financial innovation that diversifies risk," the financial markets would have been a lot better off.
2:20 p.m. Munger on Greenspan
"Alan Greenspan did overdose a little bit on Ayn Rand."
2:15 p.m. Fair Value Accounting
Mr. Buffett said that he thinks the use of fair value accounting may serve to discourage management teams from doing overly risky loans going forward. He went on to say, though, that some esoteric securities are so difficult to understand that he wouldn't know where to begin to value them.
2:10 p.m. The Credit Crisis
Mr. Buffett said that in his career he can't remember one episode where a blowup in residential real estate has sent shock waves throughout the financial world. He went on to say that he didn't think many of these weak lending practices will happen anytime again in the near future. Munger said Web-van, which in his words was an asinine idea, was more intelligent than what happened in the mortgage market over the last few years.
1:57 p.m. Munger's Reading List
Mr. Munger recommended reading Cialdini's book Influence, in addition to his new book Yes!
1:55 p.m. Your Most Important Investment
Mr. Buffett said that the most important investment you can make is in yourself, because an individual's potential often exceeds realization. He further said that he asks high school students that if they could buy one car for their entire life, how would they treat it? He then drew an analogy to caring for an individual's mind and body. Mr. Buffett said that the reason people are effective in life is because other people want to be around them and work with them.
1:40 p.m. Outlook on Coal
Mr. Buffett said that in the short term the world is in need of more coal, but that longer term it would be critical to find alternative sources of energy, and that in Berkshire's Mid-American utility business, they have been investing in wind power, among other alternatives. Mr. Munger said that from a resource-allocation perspective, he would rather have the world use up all its coal first, before using its supplies of hydro-carbons.
1:25 p.m. The Use of Models
Mr. Buffett indicated that in an investment professional, you need somebody who can be trusted and who has reasonable analytical skills, but more importantly, someone who can imagine risks that haven't ever happened, which most models don't capture. He said he used this approach in his search for a new CIO, which he stated in his 2006 annual report. He also noted that his thoughts were somewhat prophetic given what has happened in the credit markets over the last few months, where most of the large financial institutions' quantitative models didn't accurately capture the potential for what eventually happened. I think this is insightful, as it's always important to remember that models are tools in the analytical process, and not outcomes.
1:15 p.m. The Mars/Wrigley Deal
Buffett remarked that he was contacted to help in the financing of Mars' announced acquisition of Wrigley last week. He indicated that the Mars family only wanted to deal with him, because they knew the cash would be there, and they appreciated that Berkshire didn't require layers of management approval and bureaucracy to get the deal done. I've thought for some time that these elements give Berkshire an advantage vis-a-vis many other private equity firms competing for business acquisitions. I further think these competitive advantages will give Berkshire's new CEO a leg up when that person eventually takes the reins.
1:00 p.m. ....And we're back.
The meeting has resumed and Mr. Buffett received a question about the complexity of financial institutions and if they have become too difficult to manage. In a word, Buffett said yes, but that despite this, most of the organizations will work fine most of the time. And as for Berkshire, Buffett remarked that he thinks of himself as the firm's chief risk officer, which gives me comfort that he is probably thinking of risks to the company that most people haven't even fathomed yet.
12:00 p.m. Lunch
The meeting is breaking for lunch now; we'll be back in about 45 minutes.
11:55 a.m. Munger on Ethanol
Munger said that the policy of turning American corn into automobile fuel is an incredibly stupid idea.
11:50 a.m Buffett on Oil
Mr. Buffett said that he thinks the surplus capacity in producing oil is smaller than he can ever remember. He went on to say that when oil ever hits its maximum production levels, then it will hit a gradual decline in supply, though he said he doesn't have any idea of when we will hit our peak. He said that there are no short-term fixes to weaning the world off of oil, but that eventually behavior will adjust or alternatives will develop. Buffett said that it's hard for him to imagine that demand will starting falling off based on current circumstances. Munger referred to solar as an alternative source of energy and said we have no other real alternative than the sun.
11:40 a.m. Munger on Diversification
"The whole secret of investment is to find places where it's safe and wise not to diversify."
11:30 a.m. Succession Planning
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett to give an update on his succession plan. He reiterated his previous thoughts and said that he has three potential candidates to take over the CEO job, and now has four potential candidates to take over the investment responsibilities, and that it is the Berkshire board's decision to decide who those individuals will ultimately be. He also said that the new CEO would likely have some input on who the investment officer(s) would eventually be. I've long suspected that the CEO job could go to either Ajit Jain or David Sokol, but that is only pure speculation on my part, as Mr. Buffett has never indicated the name of any of the candidates.
11:15 a.m. Buffett on the Dollar
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett about his view on the dollar. He said he thinks that the U.S. is going to continue to pursue policies that will cause the dollar to fall vis-a-vis other currencies. He further said that he doesn't hedge Berkshire's dollar exposure, but is happy to own either businesses or marketable securities that do have foreign earnings power. This is consistent with what Mr. Buffett has said over the last year: Instead of taking a direct currency position, he would rather own a business with foreign earnings power. However, this is but only one of the criteria that he uses when considering potential investments.
11:05 a.m. Mr. Munger on Making Investments
"We buy businesses that are drowning in cash."
11:00 a.m. Municipal Bond Insurance
Mr. Buffett indicated that in the first quarter of 2008, Berkshire's new municipal bond insurer, Berkshire Hathaway Assurance, did premium volume of over $400 million, primarily written in the secondary market--meaning Berkshire sold insurance on bonds that were already insured by other muni insurers. Effectively, Berkshire is doubly insulated on these contracts, as not only would the municipality have to go into default, which has historically been a very low probability event, but the pre-existing bond insurers would also have to fail to pay their claims. Given this double layer of protection on these already relatively safe bonds, these transactions seem to me like almost free money for Berkshire.
10:50 a.m. Mr. Munger on Exploiting Market Dislocations
"If you can't think fast and act resolutely, it does you no good."
10:45 a.m. Pair Trading
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett if he did pair trading (going long one security and short a similar security) in his partnerships in the 1960s. Buffett said that he was roughly doing a version of that in the 1960s, but that he's made more money by going long than pair trading. Mr. Munger added, "We made our money by being long some wonderful businesses."
10:40 a.m. Buffett on Communication
"The ability to communicate both in writing and orally is enormously important and under taught."
10:30 a.m. Career Advice
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett if he would do it all over again, what would he do, and why? Buffett said yes of course, and that he loves what he does and he loves his life. For the rest of us, he said, "It would be a terrible mistake to sleepwalk through your life." He then indicated that it's important to do something that you have a passion for and that gets you excited to get out of bed in the morning, which is how he felt when he worked for his mentor Ben Graham in New York.
10:15 a.m. Common Stock and Berkshire Returns
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett for his outlook on Berkshire's future equity and overall returns. Mr. Buffett said that he thinks Berkshire would be lucky to earn 10% on its stock investments over time. He also said he thinks Berkshire's returns will be lower than they have been. Both of these expectations are primarily due to Berkshire's large size and that it needs "elephants" to move the needle on the valuation. He further said that he thinks Berkshire stacks up well compared with other large corporations, but that the rate at which Berkshire will make money in the future will almost assuredly be lower than in the past. He did say, though, that with smaller amounts of money, some investors could do better than Berkshire because the smaller asset size opens up a much greater universe of opportunities than is currently available to Berkshire. He did go on to indicate that it will take a lot of time and work to potentially uncover mis-priced securities. These overall viewpoints are consistent with what he has said in prior meetings, and also during his search for a new investment officer(s).
10:00 a.m. Philanthropic Advice from Mr. Munger
Here is a paraphrase of his comments: If you are far to the right or far to the left, you'll make a lot of dumb charitable gifts.
9:55 a.m. Use of Options
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett about his use of stock options in his equity positions. He said that he doesn't use options around his equity positions, and that if an investor likes the business and wants to buy a stock, he should just buy the stock and forget about the options on the stock. Buffett then said that the chief difficulty of using options is that they require an element of timing that is very difficult to predict. Mr. Buffett went on to say that in business schools, students just need to take two courses that will help them become better investors. One is a course on how to value a business, and the other is a course on how to think about market fluctuations. The key insight here is that investing comes down to a basic understanding of business fundamentals and having an emotional stability that allows one to have a mind set that is different from the market or the crowd.
9:45 a.m. Investment Advice
A shareholder asked how one can correct one's mind set away from a crowd mentality. Mr. Buffett said to read and re-read Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor. He specifically said that chapters 8 and 20 are most poignant, but that the lessons from the book are as relevant today as they were when he first read Graham's book when he was 19 years old. He also said there are basically three lessons to take away from the book: (1) Think of stocks as owning parts of a business, (2) Use the market to serve you rather than instruct you, and (3) Always require a margin of safety when investing. In today's environment, these principles are critical, and I especially think the second one is important to remember, as, in my opinion, it can help investors tune out the rampant noise in the market, helping them improve their investment temperament over time.
9:35 a.m. Celebrity Appearance
While last year's meeting featured a song by Jimmy Buffett, this year's celebrity appearance was from Susan Lucci, who also played a part in the Berkshire movie this year. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger have just walked onto the stage, and the question and answer session is scheduled to start shortly. Mr. Buffett has said that there are more than 31,000 people at this year's Woodstock for Capitalists.
9:20 a.m. This Year's Edition
This year's Berkshire Hathaway movie contained several clips from past meetings and past events--including Mr. Buffett's testimony to congress several years ago regarding Solomon Brothers--as well as humorous advertisements from several of the products under the Berkshire umbrella. One element that I found particularly entertaining was a skit of two gentlemen with British accents humorously discussing the collapse of debt-based hedge funds amid the credit crunch of the past year, and Wall Street's use of positive naming conventions to sell these toxic products to otherwise unknowing investors. In fact, Mr. Buffett presciently touched on this risk in his 2006 annual letter to Berkshire shareholders when he stated, "When someone with experience proposes a deal to someone with money, too often the fellow with money ends up with the experience, and the fellow with the experience ends up with the money."
8:30 a.m. Berkshire Movie
The movie is just about to start, and then it'll be followed by a lengthy question and answer session by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. Stay tuned for more commentary shortly.
8:00 a.m. Meeting Kick-Off
Each year the Berkshire meeting gets started with a comical movie featuring skits by Mr. Buffett and his partner, Charlie Munger. What I always think is the most significant element of the movie, though, is the last section, which details the numerous managers who work for Berkshire, and is set to an adapted version of The Sound of Music's "My Favorite Things." Even though Mr. Buffett is the face of Berkshire and the one who makes the major capital allocation decisions, his bench of great operating managers are really those who drive their businesses forward and are an integral part of Berkshire's impressive long-term results. I've always felt that success in business and investing is about the people in an organization as much as anything else, and this section of the movie always emphasizes to me the impact that truly remarkable managers can have on a business.
7:20 a.m. First-Quarter Earnings
Last night Berkshire reported first-quarter earnings that were about consistent with my expectations. The overall results were impacted by about $1.6 billion of mark-to-market losses on Berkshire's derivatives contracts, which are primarily some credit default swaps as well as some put options on the value of a basket of equity indexes. This mark-to-market should be largely ignored, in my opinion, as Berkshire intends to hold these contracts to maturity, even though accounting rules require the change in their value to run through the income statement.
As I had expected, Berkshire's biggest business, insurance, had lower results due to softening rates across most lines of business. The most marked decline was at Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance, where catastrophe insurance policies have been declining, and Berkshire has prudently pulled back from some of these markets. Auto-insurer GEICO still produced decent growth, despite the slowing rate environment.
On the investing side, Berkshire completed the deal for Marmon Group for $4.5 billion and also purchased over $10.5 billion in fixed-income securities. This is significant, as Mr. Buffett, while typically recognized for his great stock picks, is just as good if not a better fixed-income investor. Given the dislocation in the credit markets over the last quarter, Berkshire was likely able to pick up some bonds with very compelling yields. Taken together, Berkshire's cash balance was down to about $31 billion as of March 31. This doesn't include the $6.5 billion that Berkshire agreed to pay to finance Mars' purchase of Wrigley in April. And since Berkshire must also hold around $10 billion of cash for insurance regulatory purposes, its disposable cash balance is down to about $15 billion--a level much lower than in years past, and potentially indicative of Mr. Buffett finding attractive investments amid the market dislocations of the past year.
7:00 a.m. Welcome to Omaha
Greetings from the Qwest Center in Omaha. Berkshire shareholders have just started to file into the meeting. This year's meeting looks to be an even bigger event than in years past, as this year most shareholders are likely very interested to hear Mr. Buffett's and Mr. Munger's comments about the economy and the stock market, given the credit crunch and volatility of the past year. I'm also looking forward to hearing these thoughts, but I'm also interested in hearing more about succession plans, the potential for future acquisitions at Berkshire, as well as the prospects for its operating businesses.
Justin Fuller is a Morningstar equity strategist, Berkshire analyst, and manager of Morningstar's Ultimate Stock-Picker's Portfolio.
M*_Justin 05-07-2008, 5:18 PM | Post #2512990 | 8 Replies
星期六，五月三日，2008
3:05 PM. 具有洞見的一天
我希望你們和我一樣享受今天的對話，並且要鼓勵你們有任何額外的問題或是洞見的話要跟我連繫。
3:00 PM 對波克夏的希望
一位股東要求巴菲特先生說他對波克夏的期望是現存企業文化持續強勢，而且可以繼續保持基業長青家族企業的薈萃之地，他還希望波克夏可以繼續有現在聚集所有優良企業的榮景。我會注意，企業的文化是任何公司最有價值的部分之一，但也是最難量化的部分。以波克夏的例子來說，巴菲特先生把磨利公司文化看成是他的首要目標，而從我的觀點來看，這樣的文化會給他的接班人未來繼續長久穩固基業形成優勢。
2:55 PM 製藥類股
巴菲特先生說他認為製藥類股整體會表現不錯，但由於對這些公司製藥流程內容的估價相當困難，他認為投資人直接買一籃子製藥類股最能夠受益，我會註記波克夏的投資組合中有嬌生、賽諾菲艾凡提斯，還有葛蘭素史克的持股。
2:50 PM 妒忌與貪婪
巴菲特先生說妒忌是最糟糕的罪惡，因為你一旦妒忌就會感覺很差，但是同時那個被妒忌的人還是過得一樣好 – 或甚至更好。他口是心非地說，貪婪會有相反的效果。
2:35 PM 波克夏的股利？
一位股東詢問巴菲特有關波克夏發放股利的可能性，他回答說只要他能持續用公司保留盈餘的每一塊錢創造超過一塊錢的價值，波克夏都不會發放股利。以現在巴菲特先生最近砸下大量資本在長毛象集團、瑪氏/雷格利集團、其他股票投資，以及離現在更近的固定收益投資的情況來看，我認為波克夏仍然保留所有盈餘以創造價值的可能性很高。
2:30 PM 信用違約交換市場
一位股東向巴菲特先生問道信用違約交換市場泡沫化的可能性，而巴菲特先生說他認為這些金融工具崩盤的可能性不高。他認為這種悲劇的可能性已經因為聯準會介入貝爾斯登的動作而戲劇化驟減，我認為這隱含他認為這個出手相救為金融市場立下了一個良好先例。他又表示在交換市場一頭的獲利會被另一頭的虧損吃掉，形成一種比較像是金錢的流動，而不是系統性風險。為了具體表示他的論點，巴菲特先生也提到了另一家我曾經觀察過的保險公司，Fairfax Financial，一家曾經因為信用違約風險再訂價而嚐過甜頭的公司。我會多方註記這件事，Fairfax有向波克夏概略展示其獲利結構。
2:25 PM 孟格闡述金融創新
孟格說如果當年上面當家的頒布禁令不准有這個名詞存在，這禁令本身會是一個能分散風險的金融創新，現在金融市場也會好很多。
2:20 PM 孟格提到葛林斯潘
亞倫葛林斯潘受到Ayn Rand(他的思想導師)的思想影響有點過火了
2:15 PM 公平價值會計
巴菲特先生說他認為公平價值會計的使用可以避免讓管理團隊從事風險過高的借貸行為，他繼續提到，一些神秘難測的股票難以了解到他不知道從哪裡開始去估計股票價值。
2:10 PM 信用風險
巴菲特先生說在他的職業生涯中，他不記得任何一段時期有過住宅不動產風暴可以把震波穿透整個金融市場的。他繼續說道他並沒有認為這麼多這些孱弱的借貸行為會在近期的未來中再次發生。孟格說就連Web-van，那在他口語中意思有頑固的意味，都比過去幾年在房貸市場發生的事情要來得靈巧多了。
1:57 PM 孟格的閱讀書目
孟格先生建議除了他自己的新書Yes!之外，去看Ciadini的Influence這本書。
1:55 PM 你最重要的投資
巴菲特說你可以做到的最好投資就是在自己身上，因為一個人的潛力常常會超過現在已經實現的成就，他繼續談到有問過高中生如果一生只能買一部車，他們會怎麼對待這件事？然後他把這件事拿來跟照顧自己的身心靈做相似比較，巴菲特先生說有些人活得很有效率的原因，是因為其他人想要圍繞在他們身邊或是為他們做事。
1:40 PM 煤礦的展望
巴菲特先生說短時間內全球對煤礦的需求會增長，但是長期來看，尋找替代能源的重要性會變得刻不容緩，還提到波克夏旗下的Mid-American Utility所從事的業務中，他們有各種替代能源，其中有一直在投資的風力發電。孟格先生說從資源配置的觀點來看，他寧願全球先將煤礦耗竭之後，再談到使用碳水化合物。
1:25 PM 模型的使用
巴菲特先生指出在投資的專業領域中，你要的是可以信賴的人，而且有不錯的分析技巧，但是更重要的是一個對從未發生過，電腦也模擬不出來的風險具有想像力的人。他說他用這個方法找出新的投資長人選，這在他2006年的年報中有提到過。他也提到這個想法在過去幾個月信用市場的災情之後更顯得有點未卜先知，這場災難之中大多數大型金融機構的量化模型都未能正確抓出最後那一把火發生的可能性。我認為這樣講很有洞見，因為一直要記住一件事，就是模型只是分析過程中的工具，並不是最後的結果。
1:15 PM 瑪氏/雷格利交易
巴菲特強調上個禮拜有人接觸他，要他為瑪氏企業收購雷格利出手灑些銀彈。他特別談到瑪氏企業只希望和他談這樁交易，因為他們知道現金一定會完全備好，而且他們對波克夏不用在公司內部透過層層管理團隊的官僚過程就可以讓交易完成感到感激。我曾經想過波克夏因為擁有這些元素，而可以在眾多私募基金公司強敵環伺之下仍然在收購案源的供應上有其優勢，我更認為這些競爭優勢會讓波克夏的接班人正式接任時，在大樹下好乘涼。
1:00 PM 我們回來了
會議再度進行，而巴菲特先生問被到有關金融機構複雜性的問題，以及他們是否變得難以管理。用一句話來形容，巴菲特說是的，雖然如此，大多數機構大多時候都可以正常運作。至於波克夏，巴菲特說他覺得自己是公司的風險長。這樣講讓我認為他大概有考慮到大多數人沒想到的風險層面，而讓我感到安心。
12:00 PM 午餐
議程到了午餐休息時間，我們四十五分鐘之後再回來。
11:55 AM 孟格談到乙醇
孟格說把美國的玉米變成汽車燃料的政策是一個不可思議的笨主意。
11:50 AM 巴菲特談到石油
巴菲特先生說他覺得石油產量剩餘比他記憶中任何一個時候都還要小，他繼續提到當石油達到生產頂峰時，供給便會逐步減少，雖然他並不知道我們甚麼時候會到那個頂點。他說短期內並沒有讓全球戒掉石油癮的方法，但是終究人類行為會調整，或是替代能源會發展起來。巴菲特說他很難想像以現在的光景而言，需求會下滑。孟格把太陽能當做是替代能源的來源，而且還說除了太陽之外並沒有其他真正的替代能源。
11:40 AM 孟格提到分散投資標的
整個投資的秘密就是如何去找到一個安全而聰明的不用分散投資的方式
11:30 AM 接班養成計畫
一位股東要巴菲特向大家報告一下他最新的接班養成計畫，他再次重申之前提到過的想法，並說他有三位可能接任執行長的人選，而現在有四位接任投資大任的潛在人選，而最後那一位會雀屏中選則是波克夏董事會的抉擇。他也說到新接任的執行長會對投資主管的人事案有些意見表示的空間。我長期以來懷疑執行長的角色接下來會由Ajit Jain或David Sokol來擔綱，但是巴菲特對於人選的名字都是隻字未提。
11:15 AM 巴菲特談到美元
一位股東問巴菲特他對美元的看法，他說他認為美國會持續航行在美元相對弱勢的政策航道上，他更說到他並未對波克夏的美元部位做避險，但是非常樂意擁有賺外國錢能力的公司或其公開發行證券。這和他去年的態度並無二致：與其擁抱不同的貨幣部位，不如直接擁有可賺外國錢的公司。然而這只是他考量可能投資案的關鍵因素之一。
11:05 AM 孟格提到做投資
我們都買那種快被自己現金淹沒的公司。
11:00 AM 市政債券保險
巴菲特先生指出在08年第一季，波克夏新的市政債券保險公司，名為波克夏海瑟威保險，做了超過四億美元的大業績，大部分在次級市場承做¬¬ – 意思是波克夏對那些已經被其他保險公司承保的市政債券再賣一次保險。結果是波克夏二次隔離這些合約，如此不僅市政會違約，這是歷史上很小發生可能性的，連很早就存在的債券承保公司都無法付出那樣的理賠。以這些相對安全的債券所受到的雙重保護，這些交易對我來說看起來像是波克夏手到擒來的錢。
10:50 AM 孟格先生談到發掘市場錯亂
如果你無法快速思考並果決執行，那對你沒有好處。
10:45 AM 配對交易
一位股東問巴菲特先生他是否曾經在六零年代他的合夥時期做過配對交易(一支股票做多，另一支相似股票做空)。巴菲特表示他在六零年代做過很接近的事情，但是他靠做多而賺到的獲利比配對交易來得多。孟格先生附加說：我們的錢是從大量做多一些很棒的公司而賺來的。
10:40 AM 巴菲特談溝通
用口語和寫字來溝通的能力同時具備巨大的重要性，也常常被教育忽略掉
10:30 AM 職涯諮詢
一位股東問巴菲特先生他會不會重頭再幹一次，如果會的話他會做甚麼，以及為什麼。巴菲特說是的當然，而且他愛他現在做的事和他妻子。對所有在場其他人，他說：一生過得像行屍走肉是很可怕的錯誤。然後他說去做你有熱情，而且可以讓你很興奮地早上從床上爬起來的那種事情，是很重要的，這就是當年他和恩師班葛拉漢在紐約共事的時候的感觸。
10:15 AM 普通股及波克夏的報酬
一位股東問巴菲特先生有關他對波克夏未來股票及整體報酬的展望，巴菲特先生說他認為波克夏歷年來股票可以賺10%是幸運的事，他也提到說他認為波克夏未來的報酬會比以往要低。這樣的期望結果來自於波克夏的龐大規模，以及他們需要大象級的企業讓企業評價的指針移動。他又提到他認為和其他公司比較，波克夏的結構表現相對是好的，但是未來波克夏賺錢的速度會幾乎確定比過去要慢。他也說過，用比較少的資金，有些投資人可以比波克夏達到更好的績效，因為較小的資產規模可以開創比現在波克夏可擁有的還要更多的機會。他繼續聊到要去補那些被錯估的股票的洞，必須花很多時間及功夫。所有這些觀點都和他所有之前的會議所持有的態度一致，也和他尋找未來的投資主管所持觀點一致。
10:00 AM 來自孟格的憐憫建議
這是他一句摘錄評論：如果你離左邊和離右邊都很遠，你會送出很多慈善禮物的。
9:55 AM 選擇權的使用
一位股東問巴菲特先生有關他股票部位中，個人選擇權的運用情形，他說他並沒有在他股票部位使用選擇權，而且如果一個投資者喜歡一家公司然後想買它的股票，他應該就買那支個股而不要花心思在選擇權上面。巴菲特然後提到說使用選擇權最主要的困難之處在於時間這個非常難測的因素在裡面。他繼續說在商學院裡面，學生只需要修兩門可以幫助他們成為更好的投資人的課程，一門是如何評價公司，另一門則是如何思考市場波動。關鍵的洞見在於投資是落實在對公司運作的基本了解，以及讓一個人有不從眾的穩定情緒心理特質。
9:45 AM 投資建議
一位投資人問道如何讓自己的心智不會從眾，巴菲特說要閱讀再閱讀班葛拉漢的The Intelligent Investor一書，他特別強調第八和第二十章是最切中核心的，但是書裡面揭示的課程和今天市場的關連，和當年他十九歲就第一次閱讀葛拉漢的書的時候一樣高度。他也提到基本上在該本書可以學到三件事情：(1)將擁有股票想成擁有一家公司的部分一樣，(2)讓市場為你做事而不是牽著你的鼻子走，和(3)投資時永遠保留一塊安全空間。在今天的環境裡，這些原則是關鍵的，而且我特別覺得第二點是很重要去記住的，就如同在我的觀點裡，這樣可以幫助投資人避開市場裡的雜音，幫助他們隨時間過去而改善投資性格。
9:35 AM 名人出現
當去年的股東會有Jimmy Buffett的歌曲串場，今年的名人面孔有Susan Lucci，她也在今年波克夏扮演部分的角色。巴菲特先生和孟格先生才剛粉墨登場，問答時間將會馬上開始，巴菲特先生說今年這個資本家的搖滾盛會有超過三萬一千人參加。
9:20 AM 今年的版本
今年的波克夏海瑟威大秀有幾段從去年股東會和過去活動節錄的影片 – 包括幾年前巴菲特先生就有關所羅門兄弟在國會做的證詞，還有一些波克夏旗下公司產品幽默的廣告。一個我特別覺得有娛樂效果的元素是兩個操英國口音的紳士幽默地討論去年債券避險基金和信用崩盤的小喜劇，裡面還有華爾街對無知的投資人用包裝糖衣的手法兜售這些毒藥。事實上，巴菲特先生曾經在2006年年度致股東信中對這個風險有點出來過，他說：當某個有經驗的人向有錢的人促成交易時，太常出現的是那位有錢的老兄到最後買到了經驗，而那位有經驗的人最後得到了錢。
8:30 AM 波克夏秀場時間
盛會就要開始，然後就是巴菲特先生和孟格先生冗長的問答時間，不要離開，更多大戲很快登場！
8:00 AM 大會開始
每年波克夏股東會都是由巴菲特和搭擋孟格先生的小漫畫喜劇做開端，我總是覺得那短片中最印象深刻的元素在最後一段，有對眾多波克夏經理人的細部描寫，而且配上了電影真善美的”My Favorite Things”的音樂。即使巴菲特是波克夏的門面，也是做出主要資本配置決策的人，他團隊中一些很棒的經理人才是真正讓那些公司向前運作，也才是讓波克夏可以有如此令人印象深刻長期表現的中堅份子。我總是覺得商業和投資的成功，組織裡面的人的因素扮演和其他因素相同吃重的角色，而這個片段總是向我強調真正傑出的經理人對公司的影響有多大。
7:20 AM 第一季營收
昨晚波克夏公佈和我預期出入不大的第一季營收，總體結果受到波克夏十六億美元衍生性商品市價跌損影響，主要包括一些信用違約交換以及一籃子股票指數市價的賣權。這個比對市價應該被大大地忽略，就我的意見，如果波克夏想要續抱這些合約至到期日的話，即使會計準則要求改變價值以產生損益表。
如同我所預期的，波克夏最大的事業體，保險業，因為事業線上受到利率下滑影響表現略差。最明顯的下滑是在波克夏海瑟威再保，由於巨災保單的業績不理想，而波克夏已經逐步抽離其中一些市場；汽車保險業GEICO即使在這樣的緩步利率環境中，還是有明顯的成長。
在投資面，波克夏完成了長毛象集團四十五億的案子，也購買了超過一百零五億美元的固定收益證券，這很明顯地說明了巴菲特本人，當被普遍認為是選股的高手的同時，也同樣身為就算沒有更好也一樣不錯的固定收益投資者。過去一季由於信用市場的震動，波克夏可能有辦法買一些殖利率不錯的債券。加總來看，波克夏的現金結餘在三月三十一日降低到三百一十億美元，這個現金水位還不包括在四月波克夏答應要幫瑪氏收購雷格利的六十五億美元。而且由於波克夏必須因為保險法規而握有大約一百億美元的現金，它的可支配現金結餘降到了一百五十億美元，這是比去年低很多的水準，而且也是顯示巴菲特先生在去年市場震動的時刻選到了很多具吸引力的投資標的。
7:00 AM 歡迎來到奧馬哈
從奧馬哈的奎斯中心歡迎您！波克夏的股東們正魚貫進場，今年的大會看起來比往年要來得大，大多數股東可能在過去一年信用緊縮和市場波動的背景下，對巴菲特先生和孟格先生評論經濟和股市這件事很有興趣聽。我也很期待聽到他們的想法，但是我也有興趣多聽一點有關接班人的計畫、波克夏未來可能的收購案，和其本身營運前景。
Justin Fuller is a Morningstar equity strategist, Berkshire analyst, and manager of Morningstar's Ultimate Stock-Picker's Portfolio.
Woodstock for Capitalists 2008 Blog
M*_Justin 05-07-2008, 5:18 PM | Post #2512990 | 8 Replies
Saturday, May 3rd, 2008
3:05 p.m. An Insightful Day
I hope that you enjoyed today's discussion as much as I did, and I encourage you to contact me with any additional questions or insights you may have.
3:00 p.m. Hopes for Berkshire
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett what he hopes for Berkshire is that the culture stays strong and that it remains a home for businesses that were built by families over time. He also hopes that the company will continue on as it is now by being a home for great businesses. I'll note that culture is one of the most valuable parts of any business, but the most difficult to quantify. In Berkshire's case, Mr. Buffett views sharpening the Berkshire culture as his chief objective, and in my view this culture will give his successor(s) an advantage in continuing to build the company for decades to come.
2:55 p.m. Pharma Stocks
Mr. Buffett said that he thinks pharma stocks as a group will do well, but given that it is very difficult to value what is in the pipelines of these companies, he thinks investors would be best served by buying a basket of pharma stocks. I'll note that Berkshire's equity portfolio has positions in J&J, Sanofi-Aventis, as well as GlaxoSmithKline.
2:50 p.m. Envy vs. Gluttony
Mr. Buffett said that envy is the worst of the sins because if you become envious you feel worse, while the other person is the same--or even feels better. He said, tongue-in-cheek, that gluttony on the other hand has upside.
2:35 p.m. Dividends for Berkshire?
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett about the potential for dividends at Berkshire, and he said that as long as he can continue to create more than $1 of value with every $1 of retained earnings, Berkshire will not pay dividends. Given that Mr. Buffet has been putting a lot of capital to work lately with the Marmon Group, Mars/Wrigley, additional equity investments, and, more recently, new fixed-income investments, I think there are heaps of potential for Berkshire to still create wealth by retaining all of its earnings.
2:30 p.m. Credit Default Swap Market
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett about the potential for a blowup in the credit default swap market, and Mr. Buffett said he thinks that a meltdown of these instruments is unlikely. He thinks that the chances of this have been dramatically reduced by the Fed stepping in on the Bear Stearns situation, which I think implies that he thinks this sets a precedent for the financial markets. He further said that the gains on one end of the swap market would be offset by losses on the other end, and that it is more of a transfer of money than a systemic risk to markets. In illustrating his point, Mr. Buffett also referred to another insurance firm I used to follow, Fairfax Financial, which benefited from the re-pricing of credit default swap risks. I'll note that in many ways, Fairfax has roughly modeled its business structure on Berkshire.
2:25 p.m. Munger on Financial Innovation
Munger said that if regulators had banned the phrase, "this is a financial innovation that diversifies risk," the financial markets would have been a lot better off.
2:20 p.m. Munger on Greenspan
"Alan Greenspan did overdose a little bit on Ayn Rand."
2:15 p.m. Fair Value Accounting
Mr. Buffett said that he thinks the use of fair value accounting may serve to discourage management teams from doing overly risky loans going forward. He went on to say, though, that some esoteric securities are so difficult to understand that he wouldn't know where to begin to value them.
2:10 p.m. The Credit Crisis
Mr. Buffett said that in his career he can't remember one episode where a blowup in residential real estate has sent shock waves throughout the financial world. He went on to say that he didn't think many of these weak lending practices will happen anytime again in the near future. Munger said Web-van, which in his words was an asinine idea, was more intelligent than what happened in the mortgage market over the last few years.
1:57 p.m. Munger's Reading List
Mr. Munger recommended reading Cialdini's book Influence, in addition to his new book Yes!
1:55 p.m. Your Most Important Investment
Mr. Buffett said that the most important investment you can make is in yourself, because an individual's potential often exceeds realization. He further said that he asks high school students that if they could buy one car for their entire life, how would they treat it? He then drew an analogy to caring for an individual's mind and body. Mr. Buffett said that the reason people are effective in life is because other people want to be around them and work with them.
1:40 p.m. Outlook on Coal
Mr. Buffett said that in the short term the world is in need of more coal, but that longer term it would be critical to find alternative sources of energy, and that in Berkshire's Mid-American utility business, they have been investing in wind power, among other alternatives. Mr. Munger said that from a resource-allocation perspective, he would rather have the world use up all its coal first, before using its supplies of hydro-carbons.
1:25 p.m. The Use of Models
Mr. Buffett indicated that in an investment professional, you need somebody who can be trusted and who has reasonable analytical skills, but more importantly, someone who can imagine risks that haven't ever happened, which most models don't capture. He said he used this approach in his search for a new CIO, which he stated in his 2006 annual report. He also noted that his thoughts were somewhat prophetic given what has happened in the credit markets over the last few months, where most of the large financial institutions' quantitative models didn't accurately capture the potential for what eventually happened. I think this is insightful, as it's always important to remember that models are tools in the analytical process, and not outcomes.
1:15 p.m. The Mars/Wrigley Deal
Buffett remarked that he was contacted to help in the financing of Mars' announced acquisition of Wrigley last week. He indicated that the Mars family only wanted to deal with him, because they knew the cash would be there, and they appreciated that Berkshire didn't require layers of management approval and bureaucracy to get the deal done. I've thought for some time that these elements give Berkshire an advantage vis-a-vis many other private equity firms competing for business acquisitions. I further think these competitive advantages will give Berkshire's new CEO a leg up when that person eventually takes the reins.
1:00 p.m. ....And we're back.
The meeting has resumed and Mr. Buffett received a question about the complexity of financial institutions and if they have become too difficult to manage. In a word, Buffett said yes, but that despite this, most of the organizations will work fine most of the time. And as for Berkshire, Buffett remarked that he thinks of himself as the firm's chief risk officer, which gives me comfort that he is probably thinking of risks to the company that most people haven't even fathomed yet.
12:00 p.m. Lunch
The meeting is breaking for lunch now; we'll be back in about 45 minutes.
11:55 a.m. Munger on Ethanol
Munger said that the policy of turning American corn into automobile fuel is an incredibly stupid idea.
11:50 a.m Buffett on Oil
Mr. Buffett said that he thinks the surplus capacity in producing oil is smaller than he can ever remember. He went on to say that when oil ever hits its maximum production levels, then it will hit a gradual decline in supply, though he said he doesn't have any idea of when we will hit our peak. He said that there are no short-term fixes to weaning the world off of oil, but that eventually behavior will adjust or alternatives will develop. Buffett said that it's hard for him to imagine that demand will starting falling off based on current circumstances. Munger referred to solar as an alternative source of energy and said we have no other real alternative than the sun.
11:40 a.m. Munger on Diversification
"The whole secret of investment is to find places where it's safe and wise not to diversify."
11:30 a.m. Succession Planning
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett to give an update on his succession plan. He reiterated his previous thoughts and said that he has three potential candidates to take over the CEO job, and now has four potential candidates to take over the investment responsibilities, and that it is the Berkshire board's decision to decide who those individuals will ultimately be. He also said that the new CEO would likely have some input on who the investment officer(s) would eventually be. I've long suspected that the CEO job could go to either Ajit Jain or David Sokol, but that is only pure speculation on my part, as Mr. Buffett has never indicated the name of any of the candidates.
11:15 a.m. Buffett on the Dollar
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett about his view on the dollar. He said he thinks that the U.S. is going to continue to pursue policies that will cause the dollar to fall vis-a-vis other currencies. He further said that he doesn't hedge Berkshire's dollar exposure, but is happy to own either businesses or marketable securities that do have foreign earnings power. This is consistent with what Mr. Buffett has said over the last year: Instead of taking a direct currency position, he would rather own a business with foreign earnings power. However, this is but only one of the criteria that he uses when considering potential investments.
11:05 a.m. Mr. Munger on Making Investments
"We buy businesses that are drowning in cash."
11:00 a.m. Municipal Bond Insurance
Mr. Buffett indicated that in the first quarter of 2008, Berkshire's new municipal bond insurer, Berkshire Hathaway Assurance, did premium volume of over $400 million, primarily written in the secondary market--meaning Berkshire sold insurance on bonds that were already insured by other muni insurers. Effectively, Berkshire is doubly insulated on these contracts, as not only would the municipality have to go into default, which has historically been a very low probability event, but the pre-existing bond insurers would also have to fail to pay their claims. Given this double layer of protection on these already relatively safe bonds, these transactions seem to me like almost free money for Berkshire.
10:50 a.m. Mr. Munger on Exploiting Market Dislocations
"If you can't think fast and act resolutely, it does you no good."
10:45 a.m. Pair Trading
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett if he did pair trading (going long one security and short a similar security) in his partnerships in the 1960s. Buffett said that he was roughly doing a version of that in the 1960s, but that he's made more money by going long than pair trading. Mr. Munger added, "We made our money by being long some wonderful businesses."
10:40 a.m. Buffett on Communication
"The ability to communicate both in writing and orally is enormously important and under taught."
10:30 a.m. Career Advice
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett if he would do it all over again, what would he do, and why? Buffett said yes of course, and that he loves what he does and he loves his life. For the rest of us, he said, "It would be a terrible mistake to sleepwalk through your life." He then indicated that it's important to do something that you have a passion for and that gets you excited to get out of bed in the morning, which is how he felt when he worked for his mentor Ben Graham in New York.
10:15 a.m. Common Stock and Berkshire Returns
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett for his outlook on Berkshire's future equity and overall returns. Mr. Buffett said that he thinks Berkshire would be lucky to earn 10% on its stock investments over time. He also said he thinks Berkshire's returns will be lower than they have been. Both of these expectations are primarily due to Berkshire's large size and that it needs "elephants" to move the needle on the valuation. He further said that he thinks Berkshire stacks up well compared with other large corporations, but that the rate at which Berkshire will make money in the future will almost assuredly be lower than in the past. He did say, though, that with smaller amounts of money, some investors could do better than Berkshire because the smaller asset size opens up a much greater universe of opportunities than is currently available to Berkshire. He did go on to indicate that it will take a lot of time and work to potentially uncover mis-priced securities. These overall viewpoints are consistent with what he has said in prior meetings, and also during his search for a new investment officer(s).
10:00 a.m. Philanthropic Advice from Mr. Munger
Here is a paraphrase of his comments: If you are far to the right or far to the left, you'll make a lot of dumb charitable gifts.
9:55 a.m. Use of Options
A shareholder asked Mr. Buffett about his use of stock options in his equity positions. He said that he doesn't use options around his equity positions, and that if an investor likes the business and wants to buy a stock, he should just buy the stock and forget about the options on the stock. Buffett then said that the chief difficulty of using options is that they require an element of timing that is very difficult to predict. Mr. Buffett went on to say that in business schools, students just need to take two courses that will help them become better investors. One is a course on how to value a business, and the other is a course on how to think about market fluctuations. The key insight here is that investing comes down to a basic understanding of business fundamentals and having an emotional stability that allows one to have a mind set that is different from the market or the crowd.
9:45 a.m. Investment Advice
A shareholder asked how one can correct one's mind set away from a crowd mentality. Mr. Buffett said to read and re-read Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor. He specifically said that chapters 8 and 20 are most poignant, but that the lessons from the book are as relevant today as they were when he first read Graham's book when he was 19 years old. He also said there are basically three lessons to take away from the book: (1) Think of stocks as owning parts of a business, (2) Use the market to serve you rather than instruct you, and (3) Always require a margin of safety when investing. In today's environment, these principles are critical, and I especially think the second one is important to remember, as, in my opinion, it can help investors tune out the rampant noise in the market, helping them improve their investment temperament over time.
9:35 a.m. Celebrity Appearance
While last year's meeting featured a song by Jimmy Buffett, this year's celebrity appearance was from Susan Lucci, who also played a part in the Berkshire movie this year. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger have just walked onto the stage, and the question and answer session is scheduled to start shortly. Mr. Buffett has said that there are more than 31,000 people at this year's Woodstock for Capitalists.
9:20 a.m. This Year's Edition
This year's Berkshire Hathaway movie contained several clips from past meetings and past events--including Mr. Buffett's testimony to congress several years ago regarding Solomon Brothers--as well as humorous advertisements from several of the products under the Berkshire umbrella. One element that I found particularly entertaining was a skit of two gentlemen with British accents humorously discussing the collapse of debt-based hedge funds amid the credit crunch of the past year, and Wall Street's use of positive naming conventions to sell these toxic products to otherwise unknowing investors. In fact, Mr. Buffett presciently touched on this risk in his 2006 annual letter to Berkshire shareholders when he stated, "When someone with experience proposes a deal to someone with money, too often the fellow with money ends up with the experience, and the fellow with the experience ends up with the money."
8:30 a.m. Berkshire Movie
The movie is just about to start, and then it'll be followed by a lengthy question and answer session by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. Stay tuned for more commentary shortly.
8:00 a.m. Meeting Kick-Off
Each year the Berkshire meeting gets started with a comical movie featuring skits by Mr. Buffett and his partner, Charlie Munger. What I always think is the most significant element of the movie, though, is the last section, which details the numerous managers who work for Berkshire, and is set to an adapted version of The Sound of Music's "My Favorite Things." Even though Mr. Buffett is the face of Berkshire and the one who makes the major capital allocation decisions, his bench of great operating managers are really those who drive their businesses forward and are an integral part of Berkshire's impressive long-term results. I've always felt that success in business and investing is about the people in an organization as much as anything else, and this section of the movie always emphasizes to me the impact that truly remarkable managers can have on a business.
7:20 a.m. First-Quarter Earnings
Last night Berkshire reported first-quarter earnings that were about consistent with my expectations. The overall results were impacted by about $1.6 billion of mark-to-market losses on Berkshire's derivatives contracts, which are primarily some credit default swaps as well as some put options on the value of a basket of equity indexes. This mark-to-market should be largely ignored, in my opinion, as Berkshire intends to hold these contracts to maturity, even though accounting rules require the change in their value to run through the income statement.
As I had expected, Berkshire's biggest business, insurance, had lower results due to softening rates across most lines of business. The most marked decline was at Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance, where catastrophe insurance policies have been declining, and Berkshire has prudently pulled back from some of these markets. Auto-insurer GEICO still produced decent growth, despite the slowing rate environment.
On the investing side, Berkshire completed the deal for Marmon Group for $4.5 billion and also purchased over $10.5 billion in fixed-income securities. This is significant, as Mr. Buffett, while typically recognized for his great stock picks, is just as good if not a better fixed-income investor. Given the dislocation in the credit markets over the last quarter, Berkshire was likely able to pick up some bonds with very compelling yields. Taken together, Berkshire's cash balance was down to about $31 billion as of March 31. This doesn't include the $6.5 billion that Berkshire agreed to pay to finance Mars' purchase of Wrigley in April. And since Berkshire must also hold around $10 billion of cash for insurance regulatory purposes, its disposable cash balance is down to about $15 billion--a level much lower than in years past, and potentially indicative of Mr. Buffett finding attractive investments amid the market dislocations of the past year.
7:00 a.m. Welcome to Omaha
Greetings from the Qwest Center in Omaha. Berkshire shareholders have just started to file into the meeting. This year's meeting looks to be an even bigger event than in years past, as this year most shareholders are likely very interested to hear Mr. Buffett's and Mr. Munger's comments about the economy and the stock market, given the credit crunch and volatility of the past year. I'm also looking forward to hearing these thoughts, but I'm also interested in hearing more about succession plans, the potential for future acquisitions at Berkshire, as well as the prospects for its operating businesses.
Justin Fuller is a Morningstar equity strategist, Berkshire analyst, and manager of Morningstar's Ultimate Stock-Picker's Portfolio.
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